Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
